Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN), Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ): Stock Earnings Analysis & Valuation Update

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) stands at 0.107971.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 0.0637.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. NYSE:ALSN is 0.126447.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

Investors may be trying to find stocks that are building momentum. Finding these stocks may help bolster the portfolio going into the second half of the year. Investors often look to pounce on any opportunity in the stock market. Without properly being prepared, these opportunities may disappear quickly. Staying on top of fundamentals, technicals, and earnings, may help investors stay prepared. 

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 34.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 24.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) currently has a Montier C-score of 1. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 753.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) has an M-score Beneish of -2.304676. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 2844.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 25.2749.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 28.3973.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 28.3071.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.03503. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.07234, the 24 month is 1.32013, and the 36 month is 1.82346. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.05336, the 3 month is 0.83504, and the 1 month is currently 0.92301.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 1.082818.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 4.733399.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) is 0.654716.

Many investors may strive to be in the stock market when the bulls are running and out of the market when the bears are in charge. Investors often use multiple strategies when setting up their portfolios. Some may rely solely on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of both. Investing can be an extremely tough process. Individual investors often strive to gather and analyze vast amounts of information in order to make educated decisions. Often times, investors may have initial success in the stock market, and then things may turn sour. Confidence may be necessary to make the tougher decisions, but overconfidence may lead to an underperforming portfolio. Overconfidence may cause the investor to make poor decisions because they are relying too heavily on personal interpretations.

The Earnings to Price yield of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 0.094824.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.  Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Assurant, Inc. NYSE:AIZ is 0.07729.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 0.092248.

When dealing with the stock market, investors may seek to make trades that will limit regret and create a sense of pride. Often times, investors may be challenged with trying to figure out the proper time to sell winners or let go of losers. Of course, nobody wants to sell a winner if it looks like there may be more profits to be had. On the other hand, nobody wants to hold on to a loser for so long that severe losses pile up. Investors often need to assess their own appetite for risk. Some may be able to stomach large swings on a daily basis. Others may not be able to take the volatility when dealing with riskier investments. Risk decisions may be made on past outcomes, and investors who have experienced previous profits and gains may be more likely to take a bigger risk in the future. Those who have only seen substantial losses may be more risk adverse in the future. 

Quant Scores/Key Ratios

Now we’ll turn to some key quant data and ratios. The Current Ratio of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 0.67. The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts. The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities. A high current ratio indicates that the company might have trouble managing their working capital. A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations.

Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ)’s Leverage Ratio was recently noted as 0.052879. This ratio is calculated by dividing total debt by total assets plus total assets previous year, divided by two. The leverage of a company is relative to the amount of debt on the balance sheet. This ratio is often viewed as one measure of the financial health of a firm.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 42. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

At the time of writing, Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) has a Piotroski F-Score of 6. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) has an M-score Beneish of -999. This M-score model is a little known investment tool that was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 19.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 32.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 7819.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Shifting gears, we can see that Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) has a Q.i. Value of 25. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Price Index/Share Movement

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.02912. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.94335, the 24 month is 1.02464, and the 36 month is 1.18421. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.84395, the 3 month is 0.87212, and the 1 month is currently 0.90633.

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 26.2607.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is 23.6728.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 21.2964.

As we move into the second half of the year, investors may be focused on portfolio performance over the first part of the year. They may be trying to put all the pieces together in order to create a solid plan that will provide sustained profits, even if market conditions deteriorate. This may involve introducing more diversity into the portfolio. One investor may evaluate a stock completely different than another. It may be important to do the necessary research on the overall industry when searching for the next big winner. As the next round of earnings reporting gets underway, investors will be watching to see which companies are positioned for growth over the foreseeable future. Investors will optimally have all their requisite boxes checked when scouting out the next portfolio moves.

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