Can Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) Move Higher? Trends Indicate Positive Movement

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) moved -0.32% in the most recent session, touching a recent bid of 20.68.  Current price levels place the shares above the rising trendline.  

A principle of technical analysis is that once a trend has been formed (two or more peaks/troughs have touched the trendline and reversed direction) it will remain intact until broken. That sounds much more simplistic than it is! The goal is to analyze the current trend using trendlines and then either invest with the current trend until the trendline is broken, or wait for the trendline to be broken and then invest with the new (opposite) trend.

One of the basic tenets put forth by Charles Dow in the Dow Theory is that security prices do trend. Trends are often measured and identified by “trendlines.” A trendline is a sloping line that is drawn between two or more prominent points on a chart. Rising trends are defined by a trendline that is drawn between two or more troughs (low points) to identify price support. Falling trend-s are defined by trendlines that are drawn between two or more peaks (high points) to identify price resistance.

Sharp investors typically realize that stock returns can fluctuate, and the periods of extreme ups and downs can sometimes be quite long. It can be very difficult to predict when a big market downturn will occur. However, investors who have a plan in place will often find themselves in a better position than those who do not. Investors following an individual plan can include some preparation for the unknown. The plan may involve specific criteria, and it may be uniquely tailored to suit the individual’s goals. When markets get choppy, it can be tempting for the individual investor to go into survival mode. Some of the best stock buying opportunities will present themselves during a lengthy period of decline. Being ready to pounce on these opportunities might end up being a huge benefit to the investor when the time comes.

Traders may be keeping a close eye on ATR indicators. The current 14-day ATR for Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) is currently sitting at 0.40. The ATR measures the volatility of a stock on a day-to-day basis. The average true range is typically based on 14 periods and may be calculated daily, weekly, monthly, or intraday. The ATR is not considered a directional indicator, but it may reflect the strength of a particular move.

Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 49.66, the 7-day stands at 43.73, and the 3-day is sitting at 26.02. The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a commonly used technical momentum indicator that compares price movement over time. The RSI was created by J. Welles Wilder who was striving to measure whether or not a stock was overbought or oversold. The RSI may be useful for spotting abnormal price activity and volatility. The RSI oscillates on a scale from 0 to 100. The normal reading of a stock will fall in the range of 30 to 70. A reading over 70 would indicate that the stock is overbought, and possibly overvalued. A reading under 30 may indicate that the stock is oversold, and possibly undervalued.

Another technical indicator that may be a powerful resource for determining trend strength is the Average Directional Index or ADX. The ADX was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s and it has stood the test of time. The ADX is typically used in conjunction with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to help spot trend direction as well as trend strength. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) is noted at 14.72. Many technical analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal.

The Williams Percent Range or Williams %R is another technical indicator worth taking a look at. Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) currently has a 14 day Williams %R of -61.54. The Williams %R fluctuates between 0 and -100 measuring whether a security is overbought or oversold. The Williams %R is similar to the Stochastic Oscillator except it is plotted upside-down. Levels above -20 may indicate the stock may be considered is overbought. If the indicator travels under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold. Chart analysts may also use the indicator to project possible price reversals and to define trends.

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -4.44. Active investors may choose to use this technical indicator as a stock evaluation tool. Used as a coincident indicator, the CCI reading above +100 would reflect strong price action which may signal an uptrend. On the flip side, a reading below -100 may signal a downtrend reflecting weak price action. Using the CCI as a leading indicator, technical analysts may use a +100 reading as an overbought signal and a -100 reading as an oversold indicator, suggesting a trend reversal.

Top notch investors are usually adept at filtering through the constant financial headlines. Now more than ever, there is an unprecedented amount of news and data regarding publically traded companies. Most of the focus is typically on the short-term and it tends to focus around near-term forecasts. Although more information is probably a good thing when looking at the bigger picture, being able to zoom in on the proper information can be quite a challenge. Tuning out all the unnecessary noise isn’t easy, but it may help the investor make better decisions. Constantly switching investments based on the headlines of the day may end up leaving the investor wondering what went wrong. Analyzing the right information can be an essential part of any solid stock investing plan.

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