Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Sees Schaff Trend Cycle Trend Downward Near-Term

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) are in trader’s focus this week as the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator has trending lower consistently over the past week.  Investors will be watching to see if the price level breaches the overbought signal at 75, which would suggest the strong likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Introduced in 2008 by Douglas Schaff, the conecpt of the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) is to identify peaks and lows and predict reversals by running through a cycle oscillator, creating an effective indicator for entry and exit signals, when used in conjuction with additional signals. The STC combines an exponential moving average with slow stochastics to display a signal line that oscillates between two levels on a scale of 0 to 100. 

When putting hard earned money at risk, investors will want to look at all the angles in order to make sure that no stone is left unturned when building the stock portfolio. With so many different stocks available to trade, investors may need to figure out a way to make the selection process manageable. Some investors may choose to start with industry research first and eventually filter down to individual stock picks. Others may want to start at the individual stock level and go from there. Whatever the approach the investor chooses, putting in the time and effort might greatly help the long-term performance of the stock portfolio.

Turning to some additional metrics for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), we note that the shares currently have a 50-day Moving Average of 29.69, the 200-day Moving Average is 32.82, and the 7-day is noted at 26.76. Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Strictly technical traders typically don’t pay a whole lot of attention to fundamental factors such as value, competition, or company management. Technical analysts want to figure out trends based on indicators, charts, and prior price data. These types of traders are usually highly active and hold positions for short periods of time in order to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. Active traders may be quick to unload a position if it does not pan out as expected. Technicians often pay a great deal of attention to support and resistance levels. These are levels where traders believe a specific stock will either see a bounce or a pullback. 

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -147.58. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is 25.72. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 30.34, the 7-day is at 24.48, and the 3-day is spotted at 17.89.

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