In the Hot Seat: Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) and ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) Quant Signals Under the Microscope

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) has a Value Composite score of 53. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 48.

Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) has a current MF Rank of 6521. Developed by hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt, the intention of the formula is to spot high quality companies that are trading at an attractive price. The formula uses ROIC and earnings yield ratios to find quality, undervalued stocks. In general, companies with the lowest combined rank may be the higher quality picks.

The price to book ratio or market to book ratio for Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) currently stands at 1.961667. The ratio is calculated by dividing the stock price per share by the book value per share. This ratio is used to determine how the market values the equity. A ratio of under 1 typically indicates that the shares are undervalued. A ratio over 1 indicates that the market is willing to pay more for the shares. There are often many underlying factors that come into play with the Price to Book ratio so all additional metrics should be considered as well.

Ever wonder how investors predict positive share price momentum? The Cross SMA 50/200, also known as the “Golden Cross” is the fifty day moving average divided by the two hundred day moving average. The SMA 50/200 for Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is currently 1.02546. If the Golden Cross is greater than 1, then the 50 day moving average is above the 200 day moving average – indicating a positive share price momentum. If the Golden Cross is less than 1, then the 50 day moving average is below the 200 day moving average, indicating that the price might drop.

The Leverage Ratio of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is 0.000674. Leverage ratio is the total debt of a company divided by total assets of the current and past year divided by two. Companies take on debt to finance their day to day operations. The leverage ratio can measure how much of a company’s capital comes from debt. With this ratio, investors can better estimate how well a company will be able to pay their long and short term financial obligations.

Volatility

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase. Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year. The Volatility 12m of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is 22.581600. This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized. The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility. The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months. The Volatility 3m of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is 24.060200. The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months. The Volatility 6m is 24.858700.

Quant Scores

The Q.i. Value of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is 39.00000. The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not. The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity. The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength. The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not. The Piotroski F-Score of Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) is 4. A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock. The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings. It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue. The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

The M-Score, conceived by accounting professor Messod Beneish, is a model for detecting whether a company has manipulated their earnings numbers or not. Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) has an M-Score of -999.000000. The M-Score is based on 8 different variables: Days’ sales in receivables index, Gross Margin Index, Asset Quality Index, Sales Growth Index, Depreciation Index, Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index, Leverage Index and Total Accruals to Total Assets. A score higher than -1.78 is an indicator that the company might be manipulating their numbers.

Checking in on some valuation rankings, ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) has a Value Composite score of 32. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 26.

The EBITDA Yield for ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.079147. The EBITDA Yield is a great way to determine a company’s profitability.  This number is calculated by dividing a company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the company’s enterprise value.  Enterprise Value is calculated by taking the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.  

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 19.013500. The 6 month volatility is 21.122400, and the 3 month is spotted at 25.783600. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.

ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) has a current ERP5 Rank of 6986. The ERP5 Rank may assist investors with spotting companies that are undervalued. This ranking uses four ratios. These ratios are Earnings Yield, ROIC, Price to Book, and 5 year average ROIC. When looking at the ERP5 ranking, it is generally considered the lower the value, the better.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.17991. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.11726, the 24 month is 1.27525, and the 36 month is 1.16956. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.17314, the 3 month is 1.22374, and the 1 month is currently 1.03042.

Return on Assets

There are many different tools to determine whether a company is profitable or not. One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA). This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. The Return on Assets for ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.047897. This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets. A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), ROIC Quality, ROIC 5 Year Average

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.150306. The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not. It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits. The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital. The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets. Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years. The ROIC Quality of ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.959799. This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC. The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets). The ROIC 5 year average of ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.107444.

FCF Yield 5yr Avg

The FCF Yield 5yr Average is calculated by taking the five year average free cash flow of a company, and dividing it by the current enterprise value. Enterprise Value is calculated by taking the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. The average FCF of a company is determined by looking at the cash generated by operations of the company. The Free Cash Flow Yield 5 Year Average of ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA) is 0.019816.

Gross Margin score

Investors may be interested in viewing the Gross Margin score on shares of ICA Gruppen AB (publ) (OM:ICA). The name currently has a score of 7.00000. This score is derived from the Gross Margin (Marx) stability and growth over the previous eight years. The Gross Margin score lands on a scale from 1 to 100 where a score of 1 would be considered positive, and a score of 100 would be seen as negative.

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