Quant Investors Are Taking a Look at What’s Behind The Numbers: Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM), Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698)

Here will take a quick scan of Earnings Yield information on shares of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM). Currently, the Earnings to Price (Yield) is 0.033985, Earnings Yield is 0.065679, and Earnings Yield 5 year average is 0.072696. Earnings yield provides a way for investors to help measure returns. Investors may choose to compare the earnings yield of stocks to money market instruments, treasuries, or bonds. The firm will look to it’s next scheduled report date to try to improve on these numbers.

Following a pre-defined trading system might be a solid choice for securing profits in the stock market. Defining goals before creating a plan can be a good way to start the trader off on the right path. There are bound to be many ups and downs throughout the trading process. Being able to manage wins and losses may be one of the most important factors to becoming a successful trader. Without a researched plan, traders may realize how quick the losses can pile up. Properly managing risk, position size, entry and exit points, and stops, may come with experience, but it is typically necessary in order to stay above water in the fast paced market environment.

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) has a Value Composite score of 37. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 29.

FCF

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) is 0.912022.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  The FCF Score of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) is 1.047134.  Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 29.562600. The 6 month volatility is 34.342300, and the 3 month is spotted at 32.800700. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.  Heading into earnings season investors often take close note of the volatility levels ahead of and immediately after the earnings report. 

Price Index

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) for last month was 0.86392. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price one month ago. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over the month. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) is 1.09835.
Price Range 52 Weeks

Some of the best financial predictions are formed by using a variety of financial tools. The Price Range 52 Weeks is one of the tools that investors use to determine the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded in the previous 52 weeks. The Price Range of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) over the past 52 weeks is 0.741000. The 52-week range can be found in the stock’s quote summary.

Quant Data
Shifting gears, we can see that Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) has a Q.i. Value of 26.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Another signal that many company execs and investors don’t want to talk about is the C-Score. The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in inflating their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) is 2.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of unusual activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the validity of financials. 

F-Score

At the time of writing, Gentherm Incorporated (NasdaqGS:THRM) has a Piotroski F-Score of 7. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investors looking to secure stock market profits may be tweaking an existing strategy or looking to devise a brand new one. As the stock market keeps charging higher, investors will have to figure out how they want to play the next few months. Identifying market tops and possible correction levels may be very tricky. With the markets trading at current levels, the situation for the average investor may be widely varied. Some investors will be trading with a shorter-term plan, while others may be focused on a longer-term investment time frame. There are many financial professionals who are predicting a sharp reversal in the stock market, but there are also those who believe that the upswing will keep pushing stocks higher over the coming months. Investors will need to decide for themselves which way they think the momentum is going to swing and prepare accordingly.     

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) stands at 0.075692.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 0.088208.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of Tongda Group Holdings Limited SEHK:698 is 0.090081.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

Traders may be using technical analysis to help spot ideal entry and exit points. One idea behind technical analysis is that historical price movement trends have the ability to repeat themselves. Technical analysis involves the use of chart patterns to examine market movements and to help define trends. Trends in the stock market are not always easy to spot. Many chartists will strive to determine whether the trend is up, down, or sideways. After defining a trend, the technical analyst may look to see what type of timeframe the trend encompasses. Some traders will look to identify whether the trend is major or long-term, short-term, or intermediate. Being able to decipher what the data is saying may assist the trader with finding potential entry and exit points on a particular trade. There are many different indicators that can be employed when undertaking technical analysis. Many traders will do numerous chart studies to find out which indicator or indicators tend to project the most relevant trading assistance. Learning how to spot these trends might help the trader develop specific charting skills that will hopefully lead to future market success.

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 23.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 34.

Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) currently has a Montier C-score of -1.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 5904.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 3401.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 51.297600.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 91.993800.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 73.007500.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.53405. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.57778, the 24 month is 0.39469, and the 36 month is 0.74885. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.86111, the 3 month is 1.27397, and the 1 month is currently 0.94898.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 0.099733.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 7.790251.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Tongda Group Holdings Limited (SEHK:698) is 0.174854.

Investors are often dealing with the decision of whether to sell a stock that has been a solid performer or hold on to it for more profit. This can be almost as trying as deciding when to buy a certain stock. Once investors have latched on to a certain stock, they may find it hard to let go. On the flip side, investors may also have to deal with cutting ties with a losing stock. With both scenarios, it may be important for investors to try to keep emotion out of the decision making process. Investors may feel that giving up on a losing stock can be admitting that a mistake was made. No matter what the circumstance, not letting go of a losing stock may lead to poor portfolio performance in the long run. Constantly keeping a close watching on fundamental and technical data can provide important information needed to stay afloat in the equity markets.

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