SILVER 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Gains will be limited

SILVER 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Gains will be limited

and silver prices are modestly up in early U.S. dealings Monday, supported in part by a rebound in crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index today. However, gains in the safe-haven metals will be limited by rallying world stock markets to start the week. December futures were last up $1.80 an ounce at $1,225.20. December Comex silver was up $0.062 at $14.305 an ounce.

Focus this week will be on the upcoming Group of 20 meeting later this week in Argentina that will feature a face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. The world’s two largest economies are locked in a heated trade war that appears to show no signs of de-escalating.

There is also talk in the marketplace just recently that the U.S. Federal Reserve may take a more dovish tone on its monetary policy due to notions the recent strong U.S. economic growth may be backing off. The Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss monetary policy in December.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

December silver futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $14.54 and then at $14.775. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $14.165 and then at $14.00.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.74.

The projected upper bound is: 14.70.

The projected lower bound is: 13.79.

The projected closing price is: 14.24.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.2052. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 58 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed unchanged at 14.240. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.318 14.437 14.180 14.240 9,753

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.30 14.43 15.58
Volatility: 16 20 20
Volume: 975 195 49

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 8.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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