Time to Buy? Analytical Look at Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) Shares

Looking at some ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) numbers, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD)’s ROIC Quality Score is 3.601762. ROIC is a profitability ratio that measures the return that an investment generates for those providing capital. ROIC helps show how efficient a firm is at turning capital into profits.  This formula is calculated by 5 year average Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) / Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The higher the ratio, the better as a higher score indicates a more stable return on invested capital.

Investors are often dealing with the decision of whether to sell a stock that has been a solid performer or hold on to it for more profit. This can be almost as trying as deciding when to buy a certain stock. Once investors have latched on to a certain stock, they may find it hard to let go. On the flip side, investors may also have to deal with cutting ties with a losing stock. With both scenarios, it may be important for investors to try to keep emotion out of the decision making process. Investors may feel that giving up on a losing stock can be admitting that a mistake was made. No matter what the circumstance, not letting go of a losing stock may lead to poor portfolio performance in the long run. Constantly keeping a close watching on fundamental and technical data can provide important information needed to stay afloat in the equity markets.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) has a Price to Book ratio of 2.111725. This ratio is calculated by dividing the current share price by the book value per share. Investors may use Price to Book to display how the market portrays the value of a stock. Checking in on some other ratios, the company has a Price to Cash Flow ratio of 5.870697, and a current Price to Earnings ratio of 6.603567. The P/E ratio is one of the most common ratios used for figuring out whether a company is overvalued or undervalued.

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) has a Value Composite score of 12. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 8.

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 32.541500. The 6 month volatility is 31.997500, and the 3 month is spotted at 37.368600. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period. 

Price Index
We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.81531. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.82625, the 24 month is 0.99629, and the 36 month is 2.08020. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.77703, the 3 month is 0.91174, and the 1 month is currently 1.09631.

Scores
The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) is 7.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in falsifying their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) is 3.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of fraudulent activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the likelihood of a company cheating in the books.

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  The Piotroski F-Score of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) is 8.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) is 655.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

The Shareholder Yield is a way that investors can see how much money shareholders are receiving from a company through a combination of dividends, share repurchases and debt reduction.  The Shareholder Yield of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NasdaqGS:STLD) is 0.052203.  This percentage is calculated by adding the dividend yield plus the percentage of shares repurchased.  Dividends are a common way that companies distribute cash to their shareholders.  Similarly, cash repurchases and a reduction of debt can increase the shareholder value, too.  Another way to determine the effectiveness of a company’s distributions is by looking at the Shareholder yield (Mebane Faber).  The Shareholder Yield (Mebane Faber) of Steel Dynamics, Inc. NasdaqGS:STLD is 0.05283.  This number is calculated by looking at the sum of the dividend yield plus percentage of sales repurchased and net debt repaid yield.

As the next earnings season comes into focus, investors will be keeping watch on the performance of companies that they own. A company that continually exceeds earnings projections is most likely on the right track. On the other end of the spectrum, a company that frequently misses earnings projections might provide some insight to the fact that something isn’t right. Although it is important to keep track of earnings estimates and results, it shouldn’t be the only thing that the investor is looking at regarding the stock. Just because a company misses or beats expectations for one quarter may not mean anything super special. Tracking performance over a longer period of time can help paint the bigger picture of what is going on with the company. Sharp investors often have the ability to look deeper into the numbers to see the actual causes of an earnings hit or miss. Of course estimates are just that, estimates, and some analysts may be more accurate than others. 

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