With a 125/250 Day Adjusted Slope of 1.79078, Is The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) a Favorable Pick?

Shares of The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) are showing an adjusted slope average of the past 125 and 250 days of 1.79078.  The Adjusted Slope 125/250d indicator is equal to the average annualized exponential regression slope, over the past 125 and 250 trading days, multiplied by the coefficient of determination (R2).  The purpose of this calculation is to provide a longer term average adjusted slope value that evens out large stock price movements by using the average. This indicator is useful in helping find stocks that have been on a smooth upward trend over the past 6 months to a year. 

Investors often conduct stock analysis to help figure out which ones are a good buy, and at what price should they get in. The two main types of stock research used by investors are fundamental and technical analysis. Some investors will only study the fundamentals while others will only follow the technicals. Many will choose to combine the two methods in order to get a more well-rounded view of the stock. Fundamental analysis entails following company data. This may include studying the balance sheet, profit and loss statements, and the overall competency of company management. Fundamental analysts often use financial ratios to help understand company information. Technical analysts often study charts in order to define trends. This research is typically not concerned with how the underlying financials of the company look, but how the stock has been trading.

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) of the Nonlife Insurance sector closed the recent session at 64.420000 with a market value of $37569744.

Investor Target Weight

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) has a current suggested portfolio rate of 0.04360 (as a decimal) ownership.  Target weight is the volatility adjusted recommended position size for a stock in your portfolio.  The maximum target weight is 7% for any given stock.  The indicator is based off of the 100 day volatility reading and calculates a target weight accordingly.  The more recent volatility of a stock, the lower the target weight will be.  The 3-month volatility stands at 33.245000 (decimal).  This is the normal returns and standard deviation of the stock price over three months annualized. 

Drilling down into some additional key near-term indicators we note that the Capex to PPE ratio stands at 0.185026 for The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR).  The Capex to PPE ratio shows you how capital intensive a company is. Stocks with an increasing (year over year) ratio may be moving to be more capital intensive and often underperform the market. Higher Capex also often means lower Free Cash Flow (Operating cash flow – Capex) generation and lower dividends as companies don’t have the cash to pay dividends if they are investing more in the business.

Traders often employ unique systems when trying to beat the stock market. There are many different trading strategies or systems that can be used. New traders may find out very quickly that trading without a plan is a recipe for ruin. When starting out, it may require a lot of focus and dedication just to stay afloat. With more experience and hard work, traders may be able to eventually scoop up some of those profits that they were expecting when they started out. Some traders may have a few big wins right out of the gate. This may lead to overconfidence in the future if the proper precautions are not taken. Traders constantly need to be paying attention to everything that is going with the stock market. Moves can happen in the blink of an eye and without any notice. Being prepared to take a position at a moment’s notice can pay off big when the opportunity arises.

In addition to Capex to PPE we can look at Cash Flow to Capex.  This ration compares a stock’s operating cash flow to its capital expenditure and can identify if a firm can generate enough cash to meet investment needs.  Investors are looking for a ratio greater than one, which indicates that the firm can meet that need. Comparing to other firms in the same industry is relevant for this ratio. The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR)’s Cash Flow to Capex stands at 27.206831.

Debt

In looking at some Debt ratios, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) has a debt to equity ratio of 0.33963 and a Free Cash Flow to Debt ratio of 1.431229.  This ratio provides insight as to how high the firm’s total debt is compared to its free cash flow generated.  In terms of Net Debt to EBIT, that ratio stands at 0.24623.  This ratio reveals how easily a company is able to pay interest and capital on its net outstanding debt.  The lower the ratio the better as that indicates that the company is able to meet its interest and capital payments. Lastly we’ll take note of the Net Debt to Market Value ratio.  The Progressive Corporation’s ND to MV current stands at 0.024709. This ratio is calculated as follows: Net debt (Total debt minus Cash ) / Market value of the company.

Many new traders will jump right into the market without any concrete plan. They may be highly optimistic, but will soon realize that it takes more than optimism to secure profits in the stock market. Successful traders are usually good at having a backup plan for every trade. This may seem unnecessary to some, but when the harsh reality of a losing trade comes into the picture, it can be hard to rebound after taking a big hit. Rushing into trades to try and cover recent losses may also leave the trader on the outside looking in. Taking a rationalized approach may help the trader ride out the bumpy patches when they inevitably come.  

Near-Term Growth Drilldown

Now we’ll take a look at some key growth data as decimals. One year cash flow growth ratio is calculated on a trailing 12 months basis and is a one year percentage growth of a firm’s cash flow from operations.  This number stands at 0.55848 for The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR).  The one year Growth EBIT ratio stands at 0.76209 and is a calculation of one year growth in earnings before interest and taxes.  The one year EBITDA growth number stands at 0.69554 which is calculated similarly to EBIT Growth with just the addition of amortization.

Taking even a further look we note that the 1 year Free Cash Flow (FCF) Growth is at 0.54739.  The one year growth in Net Profit after Tax is 1.08155 and lastly sales growth was 0.20206.

Investors may be looking at all the different factors that come into play when searching for those next stocks to add to the portfolio. Maybe there are some names that have been on the radar, but the timing hasn’t been right to add them into the mix. As we get closer to the end of the year, investors may be looking back at individual stock performance over the past year. They may discover some great opportunities that weren’t available during the last review. Investors may also be keeping an eye on which sectors were the big winners during the latest earnings season. Branching out into new areas may help give the investor some alternative ideas for the next few quarters.

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